An entire regular season of sifting through NFL player props, and the roller coaster of emotions that comes with it, is in the rearview mirror as we’ve arrived at betting on Week 18 odds.
Hey, look at us. Who woulda thought? Not me.
However, there is still one problem with betting this final week of full NFL odds: It’s utter chaos.
Half of the games don’t matter. Then half of that remaining half only matters for one side. Teams with nothing to gain (contract incentives and statistical milestones excluded) can opt to sit stars out — or play them at a preseason level of action — while teams already looking ahead to next year won’t exactly be upset about one more L.
This causes prop markets to be delayed, as nobody knows who’s even suiting up in many of these games.
Total (but somehow beautiful) mayhem.
I’ll try and sift through the noise and find some NFL picks we can count on, mainly focusing on guys who will play… for teams that have something to play for. Nico Collins kicked us off yesterday with an easy Over — and we’ve got more familiar faces on the betting card, including a Minnesota double-dip and some veterans in search of a career-best milestone.
Strap up, for the final time this season, with my favorite NFL player props for Week 18.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+100 at FanDuel)
- James Conner longest rush Over 16.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM)
- Justin Jefferson Over 87.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Week 18
End zone Evans
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one win away from clinching the NFC South — which seems highly likely against the 2-14 Carolina Panthers — and in a must-win game, I’m looking at Mike Evans odds, as Tampa’s star WR is the model of consistency.
This is his 10th straight season topping 1,000 receiving yards, but he’s actually had his best season in years — he already has his highest yardage total since 2018 and while he’s logged 13+ TD in three of his last four campaigns, one more touchdown will tie his single-season career high, set two years ago.
It’s that touchdown that is the apple of my eye as well, as some outlets have an Evans TD as short as -190… but you find it at even money at FanDuel.
Evans has been on a scoring binge, finding paydirt in six of his last eight games overall, and he has logged a TD in six of eight home games this season. His 13 receiving touchdowns leads all NFL wide receivers and he gets to face a Panthers secondary that has been solid this season but limps into the season finale.
Carolina No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn is likely out again as he’s still limited in practice with a toe injury, while slot CB Troy Hill is also questionable as he’s still in concussion protocol. That means the 6-foot-5 Evans could likely see a lot of Donte Jackson (who is 5-foot-10 and ranks outside the Top 40 in catch rate and yards per coverage snap per Pro Football Focus) or Shaquil Griffin, who is still undersized at 6-foot even and grades even worse than Jackson in coverage.
That height advantage should be especially useful in the red zone, where Carolina has allowed the second-most red zone TDs and has the fifth-worst RZTD% — and Evans leads the Bucs with a near-30% target share inside the opponent’s 20.
The potential for a blowout, and a lack of action for Evans later in the game, dissuades me from taking the Over on his receiving yards total, but the value of his TD prop is much more appetizing, considering he’ll for sure be involved in the first 30-45 minutes of this game.
You could also look at Evans to score a first-half touchdown if you wanted to get extra frisky, which is priced at +240.
Prop: Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+100 at FanDuel)Pick made on January 5 at 12:50 p.m. ET
The Cardinal Conner chronicles
I know, my lede said I’m going to focus on teams with someone to play for — and the Arizona Cardinals are in the exact opposite of that situation — but a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks abysmal run defense is just too good to pass up to not bet on running back James Conner odds, specifically his longest run, which is set at 16.5 yards.
One of the most surprising developments of the season is Conner’s resurgence as a top-tier running back: He’s second among qualifying RBs in average yards after contact (3.78), fifth in yards per game (74.2), seventh in yards per carry (4.9), and is sixth in runs of 10+ yards and third in runs of 20+ yards — despite missing four games!
He needs 110 yards on Sunday to mark his first 1,000-yard season, and while he definitely can reach that — or at least top his rushing yardage prop of 69.5 — with a full workload against the Seahawks (more on them in a second), there’s always a chance that he could cede carries to the likes of Michael Carter and Emari Demercado this week (to keep everyone healthy/give them one final look this season), so I think it’s the safer play is to take Conner to break off at least one big chunk run.
He has broken off a 22+ yard run in three of his last four games, with the one failure being a long run of only 16 yards against a now-stout Bears run defense, and he’s logged a run of at least 14 yards in nine of his last 11 outings.
Conner, however, gets a boost from facing Seattle, which just allowed 202 rushing yards to the Steelers last week and has hemorrhaged a whopping 170 rushing yards per game (and 5.0 yards/carry) over its previous six contests.
I like Conner to get 70+ yards, and if you want to sprinkle a quarter-unit on 100+ yards (in the +310 range) behind his quest for 1K narrative, I don’t dislike it, but my preferred (and most risk-averse) play is for him to break off at least one more big run against this sieve of a defense.
Prop: James Conner long rush Over 16.5 yards (-105 at BetMGM)Pick made on January 5 at 11:56 a.m. ET
Viking quest (part I)
Betting on the Minnesota Vikings — and QB Nick Mullens’ odds — over the past few weeks has been a refreshing experience.
Yeah yeah, I know he was benched to start last week, but thankfully HC Kevin O’Connell came to his senses at halftime and reinstalled the journeyman, while naming him the Week 18 starter against the Detroit Lions.
Why has Mullens been fun to watch? Because he’s a classic backup gunslinger: He hucks it (a lot), it’s often not pretty, and a few passes are guaranteed to go to the wrong jersey… but at the end of the day the stats are there — which is all us prop bettors care about right?
While he managed just 113 second-half yards last week (in a game that was already over by the time he entered), he threw for more than 700 yards in Weeks 15 and 16 combined — including 411 yards two weeks ago against these same Lions.
Except then, the Lions needed to win; Week 18 doesn’t mean much for Detroit as it’s already clinched the division and likely can’t move any higher than its current No. 3 spot. Minnesota still has an outside chance at the playoffs with a win, so they will surely be more motivated than the Lions, who could also see some defensive players rested.
Plus, there’s also the simple fact that Detroit’s secondary straight-up stinks.
Take away two games against the super run-happy Bears, and the Lions have allowed 306.2 passing yards per game over the last two months, including 345 to Dallas last week and the aforementioned 411 to Mullens two Sundays ago.
Projection models range as high as 295 for Mullens on Sunday, with a consensus of 277 yards. I’m expecting the veteran to go out with a bang in a must-win game against an unmotivated opponent and go past his yardage total (and possibly flirt with 300+ yards) for the third straight start.
Prop: Nick Mullens Over 265.5 pass yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on January 4 at 9:26 p.m. ET
Viking quest (part II)
If you like the QB to succeed, in a week with limited (quality) betting options, there’s probably value in betting on his star receiver too… right?
I certainly think so, so I’m also jumping on Justin Jefferson’s odds to top his receiving total of 87.5 yards on Sunday against the Lions, because in addition to being a bad secondary overall… they’ve been horrendous against No. 1 wideouts the last two months:
| 17 | CeeDee Lamb | 227 |
| 16 | Justin Jefferson | 141 |
| 15 | Courtland Sutton | 74 |
| 14 | DJ Moore | 68 |
| 13 | Chris Olave | 119 |
| 12 | Christian Watson | 94 |
| 11 | DJ Moore | 96 |
| 10 | Keenan Allen | 175 |
(That’s 124.3 yards per game, if you’re counting.)
Jefferson had a bit of a dud last week, in large part to Jaren Hall starting at QB, as he had one catch on one target for 13 yards in the first half. However, once Mullens returned under center, he had four catches on nine targets for 46 yards in the final 30 minutes — while logging 225 combined receiving yards in his previous two full games following his return from injury.
JJ also has had a 33% target share and almost 10 targets per game from Mullens over the last three weeks, and with projection models ranging as high as 113 yards — with a consensus average of about 100 yards even — I love Jefferson’s chances to finish the regular season with another massive effort.
Prop: Justin Jefferson Over 87.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on January 4 at 9:26 p.m. ET
CeeDee in command
The Dallas Cowboys need a win to lock up the NFC East title, and they get to face the Washington Commanders, sitting as nearly two-touchdown favorites on the road.
Normally, I would be all over the Dallas player props — especially CeeDee Lamb odds — against the Commandos’ pathetic defense, but with major blowout potential here, we could see Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy opt to sit his players in the latter parts of this game, so Lamb’s yardage total gives me a little bit of pause.
However, he, Dak Prescott, and the rest of the Dallas offense should be gunning to do as much damage as early as possible… which means a big passing play is very live, so I’m taking Lamb’s longest reception Over 28.5 yards.
Simply put, CeeDee is him, and his performance last week against the Lions — 13 catches for 227 yards with a 22, 31, and 92-yard reception — was the cherry on top of a season that has seen him rank second among all WR in yards and first in catches and catches of 20+ yards.
He recorded a 49-yard catch in Week 16, which gives him consecutive weeks easily topping this long reception total, and six of the eight games he’s gone Over this number this season came against secondaries ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense EPA.
The Commanders rank 31st… are playing their worst football of the season… and are beat up.
The top five corners on their depth chart are all currently listed as questionable, and the defense has conceded nine receptions of 30+ yards in its last five games that didn’t feature Trevor Siemian as the opposing quarterback.
Dak & Co. also torched this team for six 24+ yards completions (four 30+) in Week 12, so with an urgency to put this game away as soon as possible, I’d expect the Cowboys to push it downfield right from the jump… which means Lamb should get plenty of early — and explosive — action.
Prop: CeeDee Lamb longest reception Over 28.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)Picks made on January 4 at 3:42 p.m. ET
One more night
I said I’m starting with a familiar bet… and that’s going back to the well that is taking the Over on Nico Collins’ odds.
Last week, we took the Over on his receiving yardage total, which opened at a ludicrously low 59.5 and closed at 70.5. This week, the Houston Texans’ star receiving opened at 70.5 against the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m fine with it because his connection with QB C.J. Stroud is pure magic.
Stroud returned in Week 17, following a two-game absence due to a concussion, and posted his highest completion percentage of the year, albeit while also having his most conservative game all season in terms of yards per completion and intended air yards per attempt.
Despite that, Collins still managed seven catches for 80 yards, which gives him 7.5 catches and 110 yards per game in his last four full games with CJ under center — and 89.6 ypg on the season with Stroud.
The loss of Tank Dell has only further boosted Nico’s profile, as Collins has gotten around a 40% share of the wide receiver targets in the 3+ games he’s played since Dell got injured, plus current No. 2 WR Noah Brown also injured his hip in Week 17 and is questionable to play on Saturday night.
Collins also has a good matchup against a Colts secondary that just got torched by Davante Adams and has one strong perimeter CB in rookie JuJu Brents… except he lines up almost exclusively on the left side of the field, and Collins spends about 65% of his time either on the opposite perimeter (where he’d face a much-weaker Jaylon Jones) on in the slot, where he’d possibly face a backup CB as Kenny Moore II is questionable due to a back injury.
Indy also plays the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (almost 90%, per Pro Football Focus), but is among the worst coverage units in terms of yards per coverage snap while in zone.
Most projection models sit in the 82-87 yard range for Collins, and in a game where a win means the Texans are in the playoffs, I’m expecting Houston to lean heavily on its star receiver… and he will deliver.
Prop: Nico Collins Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Pick made on January 3 at 10:26 a.m. ET.
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NFL Week 18 prop betting card
- Nico Collins Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110)
- CeeDee Lamb longest reception Over 28.5 yards (-110)
- Nick Mullens Over 265.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Justin Jefferson Over 87.5 receiving yards (-110)
- James Conner longest rush Over 16.5 yards (-105)
- Buccaneers Mike Evans anytime touchdown (+100)
Last week: 2-5Season to date: 40-43, -4.03 units
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Jared Hochman
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Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King’s College in, Halifax, N.S., “Hoch” brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers’ NHL Puck Props.
Awarded Covers’ company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop — something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.
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