Betting NFL Week 18 is not for the faint of heart.
The regular season finales present plenty of puzzles for both bookies and bettors alike, as motivations are a mixed bag — a bag stuffed with feral cats, rusty mouse traps, and defective deep fryers.
The last slate of games for the 2023 season is especially enigmatic, as several clubs can still qualify for the postseason should things bounce their way this weekend.
There are also playoff-bound teams weighing rest vs. rust, leaving Week 18 odds in limbo with several spreads parked at “dead numbers” as the market waits for more information.
And, of course, there are those teams with nothing to play for. Do the players care? Are head coaches on the way out? Would a win spoil their draft plans?
Bombarded by all these unknowns, we can find stability in the fact that NFL odds underdogs have been a solid bet in regular season finales over the previous five seasons.
Going back to 2018, pups have finished just 22-58 straight up but 44-34-2 against the spread (56.4%) in the final game of the season, including 19-13 ATS in Week 18 games since the league added the extra slate in 2021.
It would seem that amid all the chaos and quandaries on Week 18, the underdog barks loudest. Let’s hope that continues this weekend with our NFL picks.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 24-25-2 ATS
